CM posts about "lady luck"

http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/12504231238#9

It can be a little rough if there's a particular item you're keeping an eye out for. Grimiku and I were having this discussion earlier, as he's having a bit of trouble acquiring a weapon, while it felt for me as though I'd only ever see sets of shoulders.

The nature of a game based off of randomized results is that you are, to an extent, at the mercy of Lady Luck. We've added some features with Loot 2.0 and Reaper of Souls to mitigate this a bit, such as Smart Loot reducing the number of items you're unable to utilize, Kadala allowing you to target specific item slots, and the Mystic allowing you some control over that item that would be perfect if only it rolled that one missing stat. 

Randomness is a core aspect of the Diablo series, and one we wish to preserve. However, we have made an effort to put some of that control in your hands, though there is a careful line to tread in order to avoid eliminating the journey altogether.

This is what I've touched on before when it comes down to luck.  Randomized luck that doesn't take into account actual player effort (based on what they are doing within the game), means that ones actual game play, is for the most part meaningless.  One can dump in hundreds of hours, and make little progress, while someone else can play for a few hours, and have a profile of characters geared out.  That's the way it is.

The point that many miss is how their entire itemization design, along with some of these new loot 2.0 features (smart drops), isn't as random as many think it is.  And it makes that overall macro-level randomness when it comes to luck with drops, punitive.

Note that the notion of computer randomness, isn't actually random.  Computers (by their design) do not generate random numbers.  Computer software (designed by people) are all instructional based; all a computer can do is follow these specific set of instructions, and use constantly changing variables, as a way to generate what is a pseudo-random number.

Most calls to a random number generator (RNG) on a computer requires a seed.  An algorithm is used to compute a number that is, for most purposes, random.  If you seed the RNG with with the same value, you will always get the same sequence of numbers (so it is important to choose a different seed to generate a different sequence of numbers).

Luck therefore has everything to do with the above aligning; which is why many of us use the term, "good RNG".  And that is why some players managed to gear up rather quickly because the above worked in their favor early on (imagine having good RNG during the pre-nerf chest runs).

Which leads to my point; not having an even more defined "chance to" algorithm that dynamically adjusts to what the player is actually doing (based on the challenges and difficulty), leads to bad RNG feeling unrewarding for those languishing on that end of the spectrum.

Targeting has always been done (even in 1.0.x) at below level cap.  So playing a wizard, I would see low level wands and sources that roll appropriately.  In loot 2.0, that whole system has been fine tuned even more (where it won't roll the main stat of another class - that doesn't mean it will always roll int/vit either).

Any form of targeting like this is pseudo-random; the system still bases what drops and how that item rolls, based on your equipped items.  Smart loot takes it a step further because it will try not to drop items, that it thinks is not appropriate for you.  That entire design is subject to actual logical errors (and I believe this is what is causing, many players to be stuck on a succession of the exact same items, dropping for them - sometimes consecutively, or more often).

Likewise, bugs in that smart loot code can also cause some folks to get the exact same items from the more desirable pool of items.  The number of players this would affect would be relatively small compared to the entire player base, but is still something that should not be happening.

But stepping back even further, the root issue is with itemization itself.  For example, you can find an item at level 30.  Since its stats will roll based on the monster level, this item, will be useless at level cap.  Contrast to Diablo II, items did not rely solely on character level; yes, there were items that scaled due to both character level as well as other stats.  But for the most part, I could find a pretty good piece of armor at a lower character level which only required x-amount of strength to equip (true, it did in some way require a higher character level since I needed enough points to spec unless the item also had a reduced requirement, BUT ->), that item would last me from the time that I found it.  I can't say the same for Diablo III though (where that armor piece I found at level 50, still works well when my character is at level 70).

Basically, items found at low level do not scale in Diablo III and since character power is defined by the damage number on ones weapon, no lower level weapon will even scale to be usable at level cap.  And because lady luck means that you are completely at its whim regardless of your actual game play, means that you could find a level 20 Thunderfury, and never find one at level 70 (whereas someone with good RNG, could find such items multiple times).

What I also don't like is this selective form of the core aspect of Diablo, the developers like to throw around.  The randomness part is correct but worked well with how itemization worked in Diablo II.  Diablo III's core issue (which I've posted ad nauseum about), is it's flawed itemization design, where that randomness adds another layer on top of the other layers of RNG.

The problem with these layers of RNG, is that some players will never find certain items; not even non-perfectly rolled ones.  That is what Diablo II was about.  Uniques had set stats with their ranges that varied.  There were only a relatively few unique items, that were very rare (like Tyrael's Might for example).  But most other uniques, you could find, but weren't perfect rolls; and that was always the chase - to get that perfect rolled stat range.

Like I've been wanting at least a Myken's, Mirrorball, or Serpent Sparker to drop; just to play around with.  All of these aren't what I even consider the best wizard items, and all of these are subject to the usual wild rolls.  But when they aren't dropping, what is the point of continuing to play.  This is what these developers don't get.  All my level 70 Triumvirate's (3 of them so far), came from Kadala.  No other legendary source has actually dropped for me, from actually slaying hordes of monsters.  The same goes for other class specific items.  This is supposed to be fun?

All their design is doing is artificially increasing the longevity because they think the chase is only about the items (by weighting them at level cap where unless you have good RNG, it isn't going to drop).  But it's not just about getting those items.  Part of it is experimenting and building out your character.  Furthermore, with Diablo III's itemization (where our power scales primarily off of weapon damage), it becomes a chase of finding those items at level cap (items that drop at lower levels are effectively trash).

These developers believe longevity is achieved by extending the journey with how their drop system is implemented.  What they don't get is the rewards based on effort/challenges angle (which I've posted about ad nauseum - chest runs alone should never drop items the way they have, and still are - it's a design flaw when it doesn't take into account actively killing monsters).  And the above mentioned bad RNG, is having a discernable impact with the game play experience, being unfulfilling for many.